RECESSION FORECAST UPDATE
Intensity, LLC
November 4, 2019
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January 2020: Expected recession start date
November 2019 – February 2020: Expected range of recession start date (50% probability)
Probability of recession starting within:
• 6 months: 88.0%
• 12 months: 99.5%
• 18 months: 99.9%
• 24 months: 99.9%