RECESSION FORECAST UPDATE
Intensity, LLC
December 10, 2019
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February 2020: Expected recession start date
January 2020 – May 2020: Expected range of recession start date (50% probability)
Probability of recession starting within:
• 6 months: 78.7%
• 12 months: 98.2%
• 18 months: 99.8%
• 24 months: 99.9%