RECESSION FORECAST UPDATE
Intensity Corporation
February 4, 2019
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Phew! Our current recession forecast has relaxed significantly, with a revised expected start date of June 2019. This reflects, in part, the significant policy changes implemented by the Federal Reserve recently. It appears that a recession has been averted for the moment and, hopefully, will continue to remain at bay.
June 2019: Expected recession start date
April – September 2019: Expected range of recession start date (50% probability)
Probability of recession starting within:
• 6 months: 59.0%
• 12 months: 95.5%
• 18 months: 99.5%
• 24 months: 99.9%