News: Intensity Advises on Potential “At-Risk” Generic Drug Launch

Intensity conducted an economic analysis of potential sales, profits, reasonable royalties, and lost profit damages resulting from the potential “at-risk” launch of a generic drug used to treat mental disorders.

Intensity was engaged by a generic pharmaceutical supplier to evaluate potential risk exposure resulting from alleged patent infringement due to launching their generic drug prior to patent expiration. Intensity developed a parameterized forecasting model to evaluate the potential economic benefits of launching the drug at risk against the potential financial damages that could result from doing so. Intensity’s analytical tool forecasted sales, profits, reasonable royalties, and lost profits under a number of potential scenario outcomes. These scenarios varied by various generic launch dynamics, including the degree of generic competition, presence of an authorized generic, price erosion, demand expansion, generic penetration rate, share of generic marketplace, branded and generic net sales prices, cost of goods sold, and branded marketing spend.

Intensity’s analysis was used for strategic decision making by the senior executive team of the generic pharmaceutical supplier in determining whether to launch at risk.